Has Africa Missed the Bus? The Confusing Consensus about the Continent’s Growth

Abstract

Several smaller economies such as Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Senegal are showing that African transformations can be as rapid as those in Asia. These economies deserve international recognition and support because they will inspire others through example. But Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects will depend mainly on what happens in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, the three largest middle-income economies that together add up to almost two thirds of the region's economy. The economic outlook does not look good even if oil and commodity prices increase, because these countries have many of the structural attributes more typical of low-income countries in other parts of the world. We discuss three development deficits that may be the most critical: access to electricity, the quality of education, and domestic revenues.