Abstract
Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on global biodiversity [1], including bird species [2,3,4]
Anthropogenic climate forcing over the coming decades is projected to drive significant changes in boreal forest composition and age structure [18, 19] through changes at the stand and landscape levels that are likely to impact the distribution of boreal bird species habitats
Our simulations suggest that the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting and climate change on the forest ecosystem will cause major reductions in the availability of future black-backed woodpecker (BBWO) habitat, with the potential productivity of this focal species being more severely reduced under stronger anthropogenic climate forcing
Summary
Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on global biodiversity [1], including bird species [2,3,4]. Recent northward range expansions of breeding birds have already been documented and attributed to climate change in temperate North America [5], as well as in Europe [4,6]. Species currently restricted to boreal regions may experience range decrease due to the reduction in areas of suitable biomes caused by northward shifts in climate zones, such as projected for North America [8]. Anthropogenic climate forcing over the coming decades is projected to drive significant changes in boreal forest composition and age structure [18, 19] through changes at the stand (e.g., mortality, competition, reproduction, growth) and landscape levels (e.g., natural disturbances) that are likely to impact the distribution of boreal bird species habitats. Current studies show that slow climate-induced vegetation changes have strongly constrained the poleward or altitudinal migration of some bird species (e.g., [6, 20]), underlining the importance of including vegetation patterns when projecting future bird ranges
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