HarmVect – a simulation‐based tool for pathway risk maps of invasive arthropods in Belgium

Abstract

HarmVect is a tool simulating the introduction of arthropods into Belgium. The tool is designed to guide the user to divide the complex arrival of the arthropod into all its potential pathways, which in turn are further subdivided into individual pathway segments. These manageable pathway segments are then used to specify which detailed data the user needs to gather to input into the tool. This information is used to simulate the magnitude of the arthropod population during the successive pathway segments throughout each potential introduction pathway. The tool simulates the fluctuating propagule pressure throughout the successive segments of each pathway to calculate risk indices, which are then used to generate pathway risk maps of the arthropod for Belgium. The tool generates 2 types of pathway risk map: (a) a point of entry pathway (POE) risk map consisting of concentrated hotspots relating to the arthropod's entry at national borders, and (b) a point of appearance (POA) pathway risk map, succeeding the POE and visualizing the locations and level at which undetected propagules of the arthropod are exposed to the outside environment throughout Belgium. In conclusion, the tool produces an establishment risk map for the arthropods, which is generated by combining the POA with a map of climate suitability and host availability.