Harmonious allocation of carbon emission permits based on dynamic multiattribute decision-making method

Abstract

Fair and reasonable allocation of carbon emission permits between regions is the premise of effective operation of carbon emission trading scheme. Thus, based on the harmonious management theory, we propose a two-stage allocation model of “preliminary allocation-harmonious diagnosis and evolution” to analyze the harmonious allocation of carbon emission permits. Specifically, we integrate four principles of fairness, efficiency, sustainability, and government macrocontrol to construct an allocation index system and use the dynamic multiattribute decision-making method to obtain a preallocation scheme. Also, by establishing a directional diagnosis criterion and degree diagnosis criterion, harmonious diagnosis and evolutionary adjustment of preallocation scheme were carried out to obtain a harmonious allocation scheme with high acceptability. The allocation results of North China in 2020 indicate the following: (1) As the preallocation scheme may be difficult to be accepted by various regions, harmonious diagnosis and adjustment play an important role in the allocation of carbon emission permits. By simulating the negotiation process of each region, we obtained the allocation with high acceptability. (2) According to the allocation result, Hebei obtained the highest proportion of carbon emission quota, while Beijing and Tianjin obtained a lower proportion of carbon emission quota. (3) Compared with the allocation results of grandfather principle, Shanxi and Nei Mongol have great pressure on emission reduction, i.e., these regions should occupy a larger share in the future carbon emission trading market. This study is expected to provide a reference for the initial allocation of carbon emission permits, thus reducing conflicts and promoting the harmonious development of region.