Hard‐line Euroscepticism and the Eurocrisis: Evidence from a Panel Study of 108 Elections Across Europe

Abstract

AbstractThe 2014 European elections led to a sharp rise in the electoral consensus of parties and independent parliament members perceived as eurosceptic. This paper analyzes the interconnections between distressed economies and the electoral success of hard‐line eurosceptic parties. On a panel of 108 elections between 2008 and 2015, the random‐effects model shows the relative effect of long‐ and short‐term political trust, economic performance indicators, and institutional variables in determining the rise of hard‐line eurosceptic parties. In contrast with previous studies, which have tended to de‐emphasize the effect of economic performance in determining the success of eurosceptic forces, the results of this paper detect both a direct and a mediated effect of the economic crisis on the electoral success of hard‐line eurosceptic parties.