Hard coal phase-out and the labour market transition pathways: The case of Poland

Abstract

We study the labour market transition pathways driven by the coal phase-out in Poland between 1990 and 2050. We apply the concept of branching points to describe the coal transition in the context of structural and labour supply changes and educational upgrading. We show that in the 1990s and 2000s, job opportunities for miners were scarce, as the trajectories of all of these trends deteriorated their labour market prospects. As these trends have reversed in the 2010s, the future employment outlook of the coal phase-out in Poland is more favourable than it was in the past. We find that the employment structures of mining subregions and mines are homogenous, which enables regional approaches to manage the transition. Decarbonisation will lead to a surplus of Polish hard coal mining workers from 2030 on, yet the projected shortages of workers in other sectors will create opportunities for reallocation.