Abstract
The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of mercury (Hg) on birnavirus infection in the farmed hard clam ( Meretrix lusoria) populations. A stage-structured matrix population model was linked with a nonlinear epidemiological dynamics of host–pathogen model to quantify the effects of increased Hg-stressed birnavirus on population dynamics of disease in hard clam populations. Bioenergetics was incorporated into population stage-structured model to enhance life cycle toxicity assessment on constraining reproduction and growth in life stages of hard clams. We delineated three qualitatively distinct scenarios of virus only, Hg + virus, and virus + Hg. Within a range of disease transmissibility drawn from analysis of Hg-stressed birnavirus in hard clams, different transmissibility led to simulated outbreaks characterized by basic reproductive number ( R 0) depicting the allowance population numbers to contain disease spread for all three scenarios. This study suggested that recognizing which of the scenarios best describing a situation in the field could aid in planning disease management and in choosing the most efficient and feasible strategy. The present simple model captured the essential dynamics and its flexible enough to integrate effects occurring at varying temporal scales based on biologically plausible and empirically grounded dynamical models. We were confident that the model could be easily adapted for other aquaculture species and encourage researchers to use the model to diagnose the population-level risk of toxic chemical-stressed pathogen on these species.
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