Handling Load Uncertainty during On-Peak Time via Dual ESS and LSTM with Load Data Augmentation

Abstract

This paper proposes a scheduling method of dual ESSs (Energy Storage Systems) for the purpose of reducing the peak load when there are sudden loads or generation changes during the on-peak time. The first ESS is scheduled once a day based on a day-ahead load prediction, and the second ESS is scheduled every 15 min during on-peak time based on a short-term load prediction by LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). Special attention is paid to training the LSTM for the short-term load prediction by using the augmented past load data which is generated by adding possible uncertainties to the past load and temperature data. Based on the load forecast, optimization problems for the scheduling are formulated. The proposed scheduling method is validated using load and temperature data from a real building. In other words, when the proposed method is applied to the real building energy data in the case study, it not only shaves the peak load during on-peak time interval effectively but also results in lower electricity price although there are sudden load or temperature changes during the time interval.