Abstract
In this paper, we assessed the technological feasibility and economic viability of the mid-term (until 2050) GHG emission reduction target required for stabilization of radiative forcing at 2.6 W/m2. Given the apparent uncertainty surrounding the future deployment of nuclear and CCS technologies, we intensively investigated emission reduction scenarios without nuclear and CCS. The analysis using AIM/Enduse[Global] shows the emission reduction target is technologically feasible, but the cost for achieving the target becomes very high if nuclear and CCS options are limited. The main reason for the cost rise is that additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order to compensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation sectors in the absence of CCS. On the other hand, if material efficiency improvement measures, such as material substitution, efficient use of materials and recycling, are taken, the cost of achieving the emission reduction target is significantly reduced. The result indicates the potentially important role of material efficiency improvement in curbing the cost of significant GHG emission reductions without depending on nuclear and CCS.
Highlights
Under the Copenhagen accord in COP 15, international society agreed the long-term climate goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature below 2 °C
The main goal is to investigate the technological feasibility and economic viability of a climate policy that does not depend on nuclear and Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a mid-term perspective
These energy-savings and carbon intensity improvement require additional investment in technologies, which leads to an increase in the total cost for achieving the emission reduction target
Summary
Under the Copenhagen accord in COP 15, international society agreed the long-term climate goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature below 2 °C. IPCC (2007), for example, show that limiting the increase in the global mean temperature to less than 2.4° above the pre-industrial level, using a best estimate of climate sensitivity, requires. The main goal is to investigate the technological feasibility and economic viability of a climate policy that does not depend on nuclear and CCS in a mid-term perspective (until 2050). It focuses on the radiative forcing target of 2.6 W/m2, which roughly corresponds to the climate goal of limiting increase in the global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial level
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