Abstract

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is essential for agricultural production as it is the main nutrient driving crop growth. However, in China, only one-third of applied N fertilizer is effectively absorbed by crops, while the rest leads to significant environmental impacts. In this study, we introduced a nitrogen threshold boundary (NTB) approach to establish different thresholds for N use efficiency (NUE) and N surplus without affecting crop yield. We also developed an integrated assessment framework to systematically evaluate the potential for improving N utilization and reducing environmental impacts in the production of grain crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans) and cash crops (tea, fruits, and vegetables) at the county level in Fujian Province. Three N management strategies were evaluated: a scenario with reduced N surplus (S1), a scenario with increased NUE (S2), and a combined scenario that simultaneously reduces N surplus and increases NUE (S3). The predictions indicate that, under the aforementioned scenarios, there will be a decrease of 66%, 58%, and 71% in N application without affecting crop yields, respectively. Correspondingly, N surplus will decrease by 65%, 56%, and 67%, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will decrease by 54%, 48%, and 57%. In addition, NUE will increase by 23%, 17% and 25%, respectively. It is notable that scenario S3 demonstrated the greatest potential for improvement. For cash crops, N application will decrease by 65–78%, NUE will increase by 13–21%, N surplus will decrease by 63–74%, and GHG emissions will reduce by 66–78%. In contrast, for grain crops, N application will decrease by 27–38%, NUE will increase by 9–13%, N surplus will decrease by 26–37%, and GHG emissions will reduce by 24–28%. Overall, the potential for improvement is greater for cash crops compared to grain crops. The application of the assessment framework in this study demonstrates its effectiveness as a valuable tool for promoting green and sustainable development in conventional agricultural regions.

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