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Abstract
BackgroundA major deficit of all approaches to epidemic modelling to date has been the need to approximate or guess at human behaviour in disease-transmission-related contexts. Avatars are generally human-like figures in virtual computer worlds controlled by human individuals.MethodsWe introduce the concept of a "havatar", which is a (human, avatar) pairing. Evidence is mounting that this pairing behaves in virtual contexts much like the human in the pairing might behave in analogous real-world contexts.ResultsWe propose that studies of havatars, in a virtual world, may give a realistic approximation of human behaviour in real-world contexts. If the virtual world approximates the real world in relevant details (geography, transportation, etc.), virtual epidemics in that world could accurately simulate real-world epidemics. Havatar modelling of epidemics therefore offers a complementary tool for tackling how best to halt epidemics, including perhaps HIV/AIDS, since sexual behaviour is a significant component of some virtual worlds, such as Second Life.ConclusionHavatars place the control parameters of an epidemic in the hands of each individual. By providing tools that everyone can understand and use, we could democratise epidemiology.
Highlights
A major deficit of all approaches to epidemic modelling to date has been the need to approximate or guess at human behaviour in disease-transmission-related contexts
Details of where, when, what acts, and with whom have the general unreliability of self-reporting; fieldwork at best gives a snapshot of a dynamic system, while in a virtual world all this data could be made available on a continuous basis
The social networks of havatars observed in a virtual world may prove a better representation of realworld disease transmission networks than any attempt at direct observation of the real world could ever produce
Summary
A major deficit of all approaches to epidemic modelling to date has been the need to approximate or guess at human behaviour in disease-transmission-related contexts. Avatars are generally human-like figures in virtual computer worlds controlled by human individuals. Epidemiology has always had control of epidemics as its goal. With HIV/AIDS, like the cartoon character Pogo, "We have met the enemy and he is us" [2]. While for decades we have hoped that an effective vaccine is just around the corner [3], "HIV-vaccine research [is] a field that has endured a Sisyphean onslaught of disappointments" [4], so that, for it is our own behaviour that brings or avoids HIV/AIDS. Virtual worlds potentially offer unprecedented levels of access to the internal dynamics of behaviour, complete with a new set of ethical issues
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