Habitat suitability model of Agarwood in a changing climate

Abstract

Agarwood is a resin produced from several types of trees that are infected. The high demand for agarwood causes CITES in 2004 to include this in appendix II, meaning that the agarwood trading is determined by quota. The Global Climate Change Model (GCM) predicts that by the end of the 21st century, compared with the pre-1980s, global warming will lead to an increase in average temperatures of 3-4 °C, a decrease in rainfall 30-40%, significant changes in seasons and severe weather events. When there are changes in these climate variables, the habitat value for the area will also change. This study aims to develop a species distribution model of Aquilaria malaccensis based on naturalised distribution to project the potential distribution of A. malaccensis throughout Indonesia under current climate conditions and to assess the sensitivity of this distribution to climate change. The Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory application was used for this analysis. The distribution of A. malaccensis looks to be changing where in the year 2050 the decline in the number of locations estimated to be suitable for A. malaccensis habitat will experience a significant decline such as distribution on the islands of Kalimantan, Bali, Lombok, and Timor. The opposite pattern is found in the pattern of prediction of its distribution on Sumatra and Sumba. On both of these islands, the number of suitable habitat prediction locations for A. malaccensis will increase by 2050. This study has an important implication on the agarwood, where it emphasizing that conservation (both in-situ and ex-situ) of A. malaccensis agarwood is needed.