Abstract
Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups’ survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model’s simulated “genomes” (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies.
Highlights
This paper explores the impact of environmental constraints on the size, distribution and structure of human populations living in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum 19–23 kyrs BP)
Habitat suitability and the genetic structure of human populations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Western Europe had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
The goal of this research is to test the impact of habitat suitability [1] on the demographic and genetic structure of human populations living in Western Europe during the LGM
Summary
This paper explores the impact of environmental constraints on the size, distribution and structure of human populations living in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum 19–23 kyrs BP). A habitat suitability (HS) index developed elsewhere [1] is used to establish the characteristics of a landscape that affects the spatial distribution and probability of survival of regional populations. We use an agent-based model to explore the impact of different scales of mobility on the size and level of connectivity between regional populations, as well as their genetic makeup. Habitat suitability and the genetic structure of human populations during the LGM in Western Europe had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
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