Habitat Selection by Transient African Wild Dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Implications for Range Expansion

Abstract

Reintroductions of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in the KwaZulu-Natal Province, through the managed metapopulation approach, promoted a population expansion from one pack in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park in 1997 to nine packs in three reserves by 2009. Consequently, the likelihood of dispersing wild dogs leaving their natal ranges from within fenced reserves also increased. Land outside these reserves could potentially be utilized to expand wild dog distribution and provide connectivity between the geographically isolated subpopulations. We used Maximum Entropy Modelling (Maxent) to characterize habitat niche selection of transient wild dogs outside of resident reserves, and to identify potential dispersal linkages between subpopulations. A habitat suitability model indicated four variables (elevation, land cover, road density and human density) best predicted probability of presence for transient wild dogs. Elevation (AUC > 0.80) and land cover (AUC > 0.75) were the two most influential variables when consi...