Abstract
AbstractAimClimate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. We examine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community‐level changes and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservation and management.LocationSouthern Indian Ocean.MethodsWe used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean, totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around the Prince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selection as a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC‐class climate models. To project the potential distribution of the predators in 2071–2100, we used climate model outputs assuming two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.ResultsAnalogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast and southwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overall shifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, current species co‐occurrence patterns and future projections were statistically similar. Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of national waters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increase in the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area. Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands and increased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerly habitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean management authorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts.Main conclusionsOverall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southern Indian Ocean will be redistributed, with ecological, conservation and management implications.
Highlights
One of the most important effects of climate change on ecosystems is the redistribution of biodiversity (Pecl et al, 2017)
We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean by using electronic tracking data to model the current habitat selection of 14 species of seabirds, seals and cetaceans and projecting these models for the period 2071–2100 using outputs from eight climate models
Despite the heterogeneous shifts projected among species, cluster analysis indicates that among-species habitat distribution patterns will remain similar
Summary
One of the most important effects of climate change on ecosystems is the redistribution of biodiversity (Pecl et al, 2017). The most widespread approach to predicting future biodiversity patterns is correlative modelling, including habitat suitability modelling (sensu Guisan et al, 2017), where the occurrence, abundance or habitat use of organisms is linked to present environmental conditions in a statistical model that can be forecast by using projected climate conditions (Elith et al, 2010) Using this approach, several studies have projected future distribution of large marine vertebrates (Cristofari et al, 2018; Hückstädt et al, 2020; Péron et al, 2012; Sequeira et al, 2014). Krüger et al (2018) forecast habitat models of seven Southern Ocean albatross and petrel species based on mid- (2050) and end-of- century (2100) projections of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration, and wind-speed They forecast consistent poleward distribution shifts for these species. Little is known about the potential reorganization of marine predator assemblages under climate change scenarios, or how this could impact conservation and management of these populations
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
