Gun Dealer Density and its Effect on Homicide

Abstract

We explore the relationship between gun prevalence, homicides, and other crimes in the United States from 2003–2019. Unlike previous research, which typically uses an indirect, state-level measure of gun prevalence, we use a direct measure of guns in a narrow geographic area: gun dealers. We find an increase in gun dealer density is significantly and positively associated with increased homicides in subsequent years. We compare estimates from our preferred measure, the number of dealers per 100 square miles in a local area, to estimates found using other gun prevalence measure and find our preferred measure to be more consistent in magnitude and statistically significance across three different estimation methods. We go on to show that gun dealer density is not significantly correlated with non-gun homicides. We also find that increases in gun density is associated with a reduction in some types of non-violent property crime. However, because of data limitations, these results should be taken with healthy skepticism.