Guilt and penance: Prospective and retrospective voting in 2002

Abstract

The 2002 Dutch election campaign - that at first glance seemed to be an extraordinary campaign due to the rise and assassination of Pim Fortuyn - provides an interesting case to answer the questions to what extent and in which way issues play a role in the considerations of voters to choose for a particular party. A representative panel survey study was used to tap prospective issue considerations and retrospective issue considerations of voters. In this study the dynamics of issue considerations will be assessed using a comparison of the impact of prospective and retrospective considerations on the vote intention early on in the campaign and their impact on the actual voting behavior on Election Day. Although a possible shift from prospective to retrospective issue considerations lies in the mind of voters, the basis of such a shift may be a change in media content during a campaign. A content analysis of the news provides the background for the interpretations of the results. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the dependence of the party preference on prospective and retrospective issue considerations for each of the major parties in the Netherlands. Our findings suggest that issues, even in this campaign, played an important role in the decision-making process of voters. Furthermore, we find that a news wave on societal and economic conditions may cause a shift from prospective to retrospective considerations