Gubernatorial Policy Priorities and State Fiscal Outcomes

Abstract

AbstractThis study tests the effect of gubernatorial policy agendas on state budgetary choices. Governors are commonly perceived as state policy leaders, but lack direct legislative authority and depend on the law makers to pass bills and present them for signature. The theory posits that governors nonetheless possess several formal and informal tools that are used to overcome this institutional disadvantage and successfully pursue their policy goals. Gubernatorial policy priorities in this study are extracted from public speeches using unsupervised machine learning. Their influence on state spending choices in different policy areas is tested through panel data analysis of all states from 2007 through 2015. Empirical findings reveal that the effect of executive agendas is more pronounced in the area of transportation infrastructure and public safety—potentially due to lower levels of conflict and concentrated benefits, which eases deal making with law makers. Governors are also more persistent with policy proposals that are more important for reelection.Related ArticlesAdams, Brian E. 2016. “Assessing the Merits of Decentralization: A Framework for Identifying the Causal Mechanisms Influencing Policy Outcomes.” Politics & Policy 44 (5): 820‐849. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12172Heidbreder, Brianne. 2012. “Agenda Setting in the States: How Politics and Policy Needs Shape Gubernatorial Agendas.” Politics & Policy 40 (2): 296‐319. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00345.xPatrick, Barbara. 2012. “Fiscal Federalism, Performance Policies, and Education Reforms: Are States Using Performance Policies to Improve Workforce Quality?” Politics & Policy 40 (4): 593‐628. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00370.x