GST dynamics in India: Exploring state revenue trends, GDP impact, and economic resilience

Abstract

Since its inception, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been established as a pivotal revenue source for both the central and state governments in India. A comprehensive understanding of the evolving role of GST in shaping India's taxation landscape and influencing both central and state fiscal strategies is aimed to be offered by the research. An analysis of GST collections was presented, and variations in states' revenue performance before and after the implementation of GST were discussed in the study. This examination could include how different states adapted to the new tax regime and whether disparities in revenue generation were present. The data of GST collections across states was utilized, and the variation in the average growth of government revenue after the implementation of GST was analyzed. Descriptive statistics, Paired Sample T tests, and Regression were the statistical techniques used for the analysis. The findings of the study indicate a fluctuating trend in India's GST collections, with Maharashtra consistently leading but experiencing a notable decline in FY 2024. The average growth of GST collections shows an increasing trend until 2023, with a decrease in 2024. Paired T test results reveal a significant positive impact on government revenue growth post-GST implementation across all states. The regression analysis underscores a significant relationship between GST and GDP, emphasizing its broad economic influence. Implications include the need for nuanced policy responses to regional variations and consideration of GST dynamics in economic policymaking for sustained positive effects on government revenue growth and economic stability.