GRU–Transformer: A Novel Hybrid Model for Predicting Soil Moisture Content in Root Zones

Abstract

The accurate measurement of soil moisture content emerges as a critical parameter within the ambit of agricultural irrigation management, wherein the precise prediction of this variable plays an instrumental role in enhancing the efficiency and conservation of agricultural water resources. This study introduces an innovative, cutting-edge hybrid model that ingeniously integrates Gated Recirculation Unit (GRU) and Transformer technologies, meticulously crafted to amplify the precision and reliability of soil moisture content forecasts. Leveraging meteorological and soil moisture datasets amassed from eight monitoring stations in Hebei Province, China, over the period from 2011 to 2018, this investigation thoroughly assesses the model’s efficacy against a diverse array of input variables and forecast durations. This assessment is concurrently contrasted with a range of conventional machine learning and deep learning frameworks. The results demonstrate that (1) the GRU–Transformer model exhibits remarkable superiority across various aspects, particularly in short-term projections (1- to 2-day latency). The model’s mean square error (MSE) for a 1-day forecast is notably low at 5.22%, reducing further to a significant 2.71%, while the mean coefficient of determination (R2) reaches a high of 89.92%. Despite a gradual increase in predictive error over extended forecast periods, the model consistently maintains robust performance. Moreover, the model shows exceptional versatility in managing different soil depths, notably excelling in predicting moisture levels at greater depths, thereby surpassing its performance in shallower soils. (2) The model’s predictive error inversely correlates with the reduction in parameters. Remarkably, with a streamlined set of just six soil moisture content parameters, the model predicts an average MSE of 0.59% and an R2 of 98.86% for a three-day forecast, highlighting its resilience to varied parameter configurations. (3) In juxtaposition with prevalent models such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), XGBoost, Random Forest, and deep learning models like Deep Neural Network (DNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and standalone GRU-branch and Transformer-branch models, the GRU–Transformer framework demonstrates a significant advantage in predicting soil moisture content with enhanced precision for a five-day forecast. This underscores its exceptional capacity to navigate the intricacies of soil moisture data. This research not only provides a potent decision-support tool for agricultural irrigation planning but also makes a substantial contribution to the field of water resource conservation and optimization in agriculture, while concurrently imparting novel insights into the application of deep learning techniques in the spheres of agricultural and environmental sciences.