Growth Trends and Direction of International Trade of Pulses in India-A Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

The present study has been attempted to analyse the compound growth rate (CGR per cent)of import and export of pulses along with the change in direction of pulses trade in India for the period 2000–01 to 2014–15. The study was based on the secondary data collected from APEDA official website for major pulses trading partners. The analysis of growth trends in pulses import and export resulted in significant and positive growth (11.61 per cent) in pulses import during the study period while decline was noticed in export over decades. The perusal of changing the direction of trade of pulses in India by Markov Chain Analysis revealed that India could not retain import of pulses to Tanzania but with regard to Canada and Myanmar, more than 50 per cent of the pulses imports to Indian market were retained. Similarly, the transitional matrix of export showed that India could not retain its previous export to Saudi Arabia whereas UAE and Sri Lanka were found to be a loyal customer of Indian pulses. To curb increasing pulses import, domestic production-base needs to be strengthened through various policy initiatives and strengthening other required logistic supports.