Growth Strategies to Avoid the Middle-Income Trap

Abstract

Abstract Since the authors of this chapter coined the term in 2006, “the middle-income trap” has been the subject of scores of investigations. The evidence in support of its existence has been mixed, but their original proposition was that of the possibility of a trap, not its inevitability. In this chapter, they emphasize the absence of a functional theory of economic growth in middle-income economies. Solow–Swan models did well to explain growth in low-income countries, and Lucas–Romer models emphasizing endogenous technical change identified the main drivers of growth in advanced economies. Neither class of models has, however, satisfactorily explained successful transitions from one type of growth to the other. The authors suggest that Schumpeterian models proposed by Aghion, Howitt, and others that stress creative destruction and institutional change provide the analytical foundations for a better understanding of growth in middle-income economies. They present evidence that is consistent with the predictions of this approach, and discuss its policy implications.