Growth of the particle hoard share of production of wood-based panels in industrialized countries

Abstract

The growth of the share of particle board production (measured as a fraction of total wood-based panels) has been analyzed using data from 25 industrialized countries. The trends in each country during the period 1955–1973 were represented by logistic models, analysis of which suggested the following conclusions. The particle board share of panel production was expected to reach a long-term maximum which could be estimated for most industrialized countries; this maximum varied widely from country to country. In most countries, except for Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the United States, the particle board share seemed close to having reached its long-term maximum in 1973. Countries in which the particle board share grew more initially slowly tended to be those in which the long-term maximum share was higher. The long-term maximum share of particle board was significantly lower in eastern European countries than in market economies. Using information from the other 21 countries allowed inferences regarding the long-term growth of particle board in Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the United States where particle board is still a small part of total panel production. Increasing distance from the Democratic Republic of Germany, which initiated particle board production, and the availability of a large supply of roundwood have generally delayed the time of adoption of particle board. Other things being equal, the growth rates of the particle board share of total panel production appeared to be higher in countries with high economic growth and lower in countries with high wood availability.