Growth and Instability in Production and Export of Almond in Afghanistan

Abdul Wahid Sultani

doi:10.47191/ijcsrr/v4-i4-07

Abstract

The almond is native to Iran and surrounding countries as well as Asia. In 2017, world production of almonds was 2.2 million tones, with the United States providing 46% of the total. According to FAO Afghanistan is one of the 10 top producers of almonds. The study examined the growth and instability of area, production, export and consumption of almond in Afghanistan from 2000 to 2017. Exponential function fitted to estimate compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in area, production, export and consumption of almond, and Cuddy – Della Valle indices are used in the study. The compound growth rates for area, production and productivity of almonds in Afghanistan were 5.77 %, 7.37 % and 1.52 % respectively. Area under almond crop exhibited medium (19,52) instability, where production and productivity shown high (50.05 and 49.01) instability respectively, during this period. Almond consumption grew by 6.75 per cent and export grew with compound annual growth rate of 6.12 per cent from the year 2000 to 2017.Both export and consumption of almond registered high instability in this period.

Highlights

The almond is native to Iran and surrounding countries as well as Asia It was spread by humans in ancient times along the shores of the Mediterranean into northern Africa and southern Europe, and more recently transported to other parts of the world, notablyCalifornia, United States [1](Gharaghani et al 2017)
Almond farming is limited to the irrigated lands nearby rivers in Afghanistan., there were over 19793 hectares of almond orchards in 2017.[4](FAOSTAT)
Compound annual growth rates of production, export and consumption of almond in Afghanistan have been estimated by using the exponential growth function to the following form, Yt = a ebt

Summary

Introduction

The almond is native to Iran and surrounding countries as well as Asia It was spread by humans in ancient times along the shores of the Mediterranean into northern Africa and southern Europe, and more recently transported to other parts of the world, notablyCalifornia, United States [1](Gharaghani et al 2017). In 2017, world production of almonds was 2.2 million tones, with the United States providing 46% of the total. Spain, Iran, and Morocco combined contributed 22% of the world total [3](Zhang et al, 2019). After decades of war and economic isolation, Afghanistan’s historical reputation for the production of quality, uniquely flavored dried fruit and nuts, exported throughout the world, has diminished considerably. About 60 percent of the world’s dried fruits and nuts came from Afghanistan prior to 1980 [5](Bromand, 2017). As Afghan farmers continue to work toward rebuilding what was destroyed from years of war, with a great deal of international assistance, there is immense potential for Afghanistan to increase exports of dried fruits beyond just regional markets in Pakistan and India. Afghanistan is on the track to regain some of the ground lost

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