Growth and decline of a Metropolitan Area: The case of Torino

Abstract

After identifying a new definition of the Turin Metropolitan Area (TMA) based on demographic, economic and urban variables, this study analyzes the evolution of the economic structure of the TMA between 1971 and 1981, on the basis of the change in employment by sector. The most significant changes were a decline in the industrial sector and a strong increase in services, especially business services, banking, transport, wholesale trade and public services. The trend in sectoral employment is compared with the trends in the Piedmont region, North-western Italy and Italy as a whole by means of shift-share analysis. The absolute value of the total shift increases with the size of the reference area. The differential component almost entirely explains the total shift. This means that, at least for the sum of the sectors, the lower growth in non-agricultural employment in the TMA appears to be attributable not so much to its sectoral mix as to specific features of the TMA (e.g., urban congestion, the exhaustion of the supply of low cost and/or amenable labour, successful public policies aimed at regional or national reequilibrium). The final section of the paper considers the most likely medium term scenario for the TMA.