Abstract
This study examines the long-term change in the threat of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in East Asia over the period 1975–2020 with a focus on rapidly intensifying (RI) TCs. The increase in the annual number of RI-TCs over the western North Pacific and the northwestward shift of their genesis location lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia. The annual power dissipation index (PDI), a measure of the destructive potential of RI-TCs at landfall, also shows a significant increasing trend due to increases in the annual frequency and mean landfall intensity of landfalling RI-TCs. The increase in mean landfall intensity is related to a higher lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) and the LMI location of the landfalling RI-TCs being closer to the coast. The increase in the annual PDI of East Asia is mainly associated with landfalling TCs in the southern (the Philippines, South China, and Vietnam) and northern parts (Japan and the Korean Peninsula) of East Asia due to long-term changes in vertical wind shear and TC heat potential. The former leads to a northwestward shift of favorable environments for TC genesis and intensification, resulting in the northwestward shift in the genesis, RI, and LMI locations of RI-TCs. The latter provides more heat energy from the ocean for TC intensification, increasing its chances to undergo RI.
Highlights
Tropical cyclone (TC) landfall poses a severe threat to coastal areas and the variability and long-term changes of landfalling activity in East Asia have received much attention in the recent decade. Park et al (2014) showed that the threat of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) to East Asia has increased over the period 1977–2010 because the locations of maximum intensity have moved closer to East Asian coastlines, resulting in an increase in landfall intensity over east China, Korea, and Japan
The mean genesis location of the rapid intensification (RI)-TCs shows an obvious northwestward shift which increases the likelihood that an RI-TC will make landfall and the percentage of RI-TCs that make landfall
These two changes lead to an increasing trend in the annual number of landfalling RI-TCs along the coast of East Asia
Summary
Tropical cyclone (TC) landfall poses a severe threat to coastal areas and the variability and long-term changes of landfalling activity in East Asia have received much attention in the recent decade. Park et al (2014) showed that the threat of intense TCs to East Asia has increased over the period 1977–2010 because the locations of maximum intensity have moved closer to East Asian coastlines, resulting in an increase in landfall intensity over east China, Korea, and Japan. Tropical cyclone (TC) landfall poses a severe threat to coastal areas and the variability and long-term changes of landfalling activity in East Asia have received much attention in the recent decade. Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is defined as a significant increase in TC intensity over a short time, and represents another important issue in TC studies and has always been a great challenge to forecasting. Song et al (2021) showed a significant upward trend in the average LMI of RI-TCs, which is linked to a significant increase in the mean intensification rate These studies generally examined the landfalling activity and RI separately but very few studies have focused on those landfalling TCs that have undergone RI before landfall (hereafter referred to as landfalling RI-TCs).
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