Abstract
Abstract. Land subsidence can be induced when various factors such as geological, and hydrogeological conditions and intensive groundwater abstraction combine. The development and utilization of groundwater in the North China Plain (NCP) bring great benefits, and at the same time have led to a series of environmental and geological problems accompanying groundwater-level declines and land subsidence. Subsidence occurs commonly in the NCP and analyses show that multi-layer aquifer systems with deep confined aquifers and thick compressible clay layers are the key geological and hydrogeological conditions responsible for its development in this region. Groundwater overdraft results in aquifer-system compaction, resulting in subsidence. A calibrated, transient groundwater-flow numerical model of the Beijing plain portion of the NCP was developed using MODFLOW. According to available water supply and demand in Beijing plain, several groundwater regulation scenarios were designed. These different regulation scenarios were simulated with the groundwater model, and assessed using a multi-criteria fuzzy pattern recognition model. This approach is proven to be very useful for scientific analysis of sustainable development and utilization of groundwater resources. The evaluation results show that sustainable development of groundwater resources may be achieved in Beijing plain when various measures such as control of groundwater abstraction and increase of artificial recharge combine favourably.
Highlights
Land subsidence can be defined as the sinking of the ground surface with respect to surrounding terrain or sea level
This paper presents a brief summary of the subsidence mechanism in the North China Plain (NCP)
The main factors leading to land subsidence in the NCP are represented by geological conditions such as the presence of highly compressible, thick, unconsolidated sediments and dynamic conditions of the groundwater system, e.g. groundwater abstraction
Summary
Land subsidence can be defined as the sinking of the ground surface with respect to surrounding terrain or sea level. Due to increased groundwater abstractions to supply rapid industrial and urban development, subsidence is prevalent in the NCP (Fig. 1), and critically impacts sustainable economic and social development. Since the 1980s, the land affected by subsidence extended from cities to rural areas. The maximum subsidence reached up to 1.1 m in Beijing plain during the period 1955–2007 (Zhang et al, 2014). To control subsidence in the Beijing plain, reducing groundwater abstraction and increasing artificial recharge will be important goals for groundwater resources management. A transient 3-D groundwater flow model of the Beijing plain is used to simulate 10 proposed future groundwater regulation scenarios. H. Guo et al.: Land subsidence and groundwater regulation in the North China Plain
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