Groundwater level response in U.S. principal aquifers to ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO

Abstract

Summary Groundwater will play an important role in society’s adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to understand teleconnections in groundwater with interannual to multidecadal climate variability because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2–7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3–6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15–25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50–70 year cycle) on precipitation and groundwater levels across the regionally extensive Central Valley, Basin and Range, and North Atlantic Coastal Plain principal aquifers (PAs) of the United States (U.S.). Results are compared to recent findings from a similar climate variability study of the High Plains aquifer to provide the first national-scale assessment of the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater resources in U.S. PAs. The results indicate that groundwater levels are partially controlled by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. Findings and methods presented here expand the knowledge and usable toolbox of innovative approaches that can be used by managers and scientists to improve groundwater resource planning and operations under future climate uncertainty.