Groundwater flooding hazard assessment in a semi-urban aquifer through probability modelling of surrogate data

Abstract

Many areas of the world are experiencing groundwater flooding (GF) events with serious impacts on the environment and human health. In Europe, GF has received specific attention with the Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires Member States to map GF hazard and risk and propose mitigation measures. In Italy, despite the commitment assigned by the Legislative Decree 49/2010 to River Basin District Authorities, no models have been developed for groundwater flooding hazard (GFH) evaluation also for the lack of standard methods based on commonly available data. In this paper, a new method has been developed through a specific procedure that accounts for i) probability of GF events estimation based on available time series of groundwater levels and ii) probability mapping through a newly developed MATLAB™ code, high-resolution topographic data and groundwater table model. The methodology has been tested and validated in the Metropolitan City of Naples (Italy), affected by GF since 2010, for which i) sixty-two-year long time series of groundwater levels, ii) high-resolution Digital Elevation and Digital Terrain Models and iii) basement/building geometry, are available. The results show that about 59% of the buildings present in the study area have potentially floodable underground structures. In the 2010–2021 period, only 2% of these buildings were flooded and most of them were built in the period 1980–2000, when the piezometric levels were deeper due to over-pumping of the groundwater. The obtained GFH map shows that only 2% of the built area is involved by 1- to 2- year events, while 6% is affected by 1- to 10- year events. A good spatial correspondence between the return period and locations of GF events occurred during 2010–2021 period was observed, thus indicating the significant performance of the model. The obtained GFH map output can support decisions of authorities and policy-makers to reduce the GF risk.