Abstract
In this study, we use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to evaluate freshwater storage trends in the north-central Middle East, including portions of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran, from January 2003 to December 2009. GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage of approximately −27.2±0.6 mm yr−1 equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 143.6 km3 during the course of the study period. Additional remote-sensing information and output from land surface models were used to identify that groundwater losses are the major source of this trend. The approach used in this study provides an example of “best current capabilities” in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited. Results indicate that the region lost 17.3±2.1 mm yr−1 equivalent water height of groundwater during the study period, or 91.3±10.9 km3 in volume. Furthermore, results raise important issues regarding water use in transboundary river basins and aquifers, including the necessity of international water use treaties and resolving discrepancies in international water law, while amplifying the need for increased monitoring for core components of the water budget.
Highlights
[2] Water scarcity in the Middle East, and the high frequency of conflict that emerges over what few resources do exist, is well established [e.g., Amery and Wolf, 2000; Wolf and Newton, 2007a; Wolf, 1998]
[6] Satellite observations of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission [Tapley et al, 2004] present a new and valuable tool to fill these gaps in data availability and water monitoring [Lettenmaier and Famiglietti, 2006; Rodell et al, 2009; Tiwari et al, 2009; Famiglietti et al, 2011b]
[21] GRACE observations of monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies were compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)-simulated anomalies for the study region, which were taken as the mean of the three land surface models (Figure 2)
Summary
[2] Water scarcity in the Middle East, and the high frequency of conflict that emerges over what few resources do exist, is well established [e.g., Amery and Wolf, 2000; Wolf and Newton, 2007a; Wolf, 1998]. [7] In this study, we used 84 months of GRACE data (January 2003 to December 2009) to examine the behavior of water storage in the north-central region of the Middle East, an area that includes most of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran. Wada et al [2010] and Siebert and Döll [2008] developed methods to quantify changes in water resources in areas with limited observational data by using global hydrological and water resources models to model surface water discharge as well as groundwater recharge and to estimate water consumption based on statistics on population, gross domestic product (GDP), and irrigated areas These methods highlight potential options when observational data are limited, and in addition to the approach followed here, in our opinion, may well provide an example of ‘best current capabilities’ in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited
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