Ground Deformation Forecasting and Modeling in Mining Areas Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

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Underground mining activities cause ground deformations that threaten the stability of surface infrastructure and ecosystems, posing risks to both the environment and human populations. In response to these threats, this study focuses on developing a method for forecasting and modelling ground deformations, which are a consequence of underground mining activities, using advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The primary goal is to create a model utilising data from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) and specialised mining data, enabling precise monitoring and forecasting of future changes which will support an adequate upgrade of the decision-making procedure in the mining industry.   The study employed two categories of neural networks: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN). In the application FNN, a detailed analysis was conducted on a per-pixel basis across the entire dataset. Each pixel, representing a specific point on the terrain, was analysed with its associated feature vector. This vector comprised multiple attributes derived from the mining data and DInSAR images, effectively capturing the local characteristics of each point, such as its relative position, historical deformation patterns, and proximity to mining activities. For the CNN method, the study focused on exploring the impact of different kernel sizes on model performance. Kernels in CNNs are small matrices used to process data across the image, essential for extracting and learning features crucial for understanding and predicting ground deformations. Varying kernel sizes allow the network to capture different aspects of the data. Considered features included the distance from the centre of the subsidence basin and the mining face at different time intervals. In the context of forecasting, the use of high-quality data is crucial. Unfortunately, some DInSAR images exhibited noise, due in part to a lack of stable coherence and adverse atmospheric effects. A key aspect of the study was therefore the creation and testing of a classifier for the suitability of DInSAR images for forecasting purposes. The analyses showed that the developed classifier achieved an accuracy of 83%. The training data for the prediction study came from the Budryk-Knothe method. The network was tasked with reproducing the operation of this method while simultaneously predicting six days ahead. The models were evaluated based on the mean squared error (MSE) in the areas of the subsidence basin. The test set consisted of specially prepared and trimmed DInSAR images. The FNN-based solution achieved the best results. For this network, satisfactory accuracy was achieved in determining the direction of settlement, with an MSE of 0.12, corresponding to a percentage error of approximately 10% (5 cm for a subsidence of 50 cm).   The  results from the study highlight the significant potential of integrating AI techniques with advanced geodetic methods, opening new possibilities in monitoring the impact of mining on the environment. Future work may focus on further optimization of AI algorithms to increase forecasting accuracy over longer periods and in various geological and operational conditions.