Abstract
Quantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions. Here we describe GCP-GridFED (version 2019.1), a gridded fossil emissions dataset that is consistent with the national CO2 emissions reported by the Global Carbon Project (GCP). GCP-GridFEDv2019.1 provides monthly fossil CO2 emissions estimates for the period 1959–2018 at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Estimates are provided separately for oil, coal and natural gas, for mixed international bunker fuels, and for the calcination of limestone during cement production. GCP-GridFED also includes gridded estimates of O2 uptake based on oxidative ratios for oil, coal and natural gas. It will be updated annually and made available for atmospheric inversions contributing to GCP global carbon budget assessments, thus aligning the prior constraints on top-down fossil CO2 emissions with the bottom-up estimates compiled by the GCP.
Highlights
Background & SummaryFossil fuel use, cement production and land-use change have perturbed the natural carbon cycle and increased the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere by almost 50% since 1750, from 277 ppm in 1750 to 407 ppm in 20181–3
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) disaggregates the annual global carbon budget (GCB) into six components: atmospheric growth (GATM); CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel combustion, non-combustion uses of fossil fuels, and cement production (EFF); CO2 emissions due to land-use change (ELUC); uptake of CO2 by the global ocean (SOCEAN); uptake of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere (SLAND), the two later fluxes from ocean and land carbon models, respectively; and a budget imbalance term (BIM)
GATM is the most precisely constrained term of the budget (1σ of 4%)[3], while EFF, ELUC, SOCEAN and SLAND rely on analysis of national emissions reports[14,15,16], satellite observations[17,18], and process-based models[3,19,20] and are more uncertain
Summary
Cement production and land-use change have perturbed the natural carbon cycle and increased the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere by almost 50% since 1750, from 277 ppm in 1750 to 407 ppm in 20181–3. The GCP disaggregates the annual GCB into six components: atmospheric growth (GATM); CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel combustion, non-combustion uses of fossil fuels, and cement production (EFF); CO2 emissions due to land-use change (ELUC); uptake of CO2 by the global ocean (SOCEAN); uptake of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere (SLAND), the two later fluxes from ocean and land carbon models, respectively; and a budget imbalance term (BIM). GCP-GridFED includes dual estimates of atmospheric O2 uptake due to the oxidation of fossil fuels, with the aim of supporting the inverse modelling of O2 or APO and with the view that the data can be used in multi-decadal analyses of the global oxygen budget. Our O2 uptake estimates are based on the oxidative ratios (OR; uptake of O2/emission of CO2)[36] applied to the CO2 emission estimates for coal, oil, natural gas oxidation[36]
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