Grid Parity Analysis of Rooftop Photovoltaic in Jakarta and Surabaya

Abstract

The growth of rooftop photovoltaic users in Indonesia has been very rapid since 2017, which around 85 percent of rooftop photovoltaic users in Indonesia are scattered in Jakarta, West Java and East Java regions. In order to deal with the trend of rooftop photovoltaic in Indonesia, the study related to the analysis of rooftop photovoltaic grid parity was carried out specifically for the Jakarta region, considering that the region includes the most rooftop users, while East Java represented by Surabaya is chosen because it has the highest solar power potential compared the two regions others. Grid Parity is the time when the electricity price equals the levelised cost of photovoltaic energy generation. To analyse the dynamics of the generation costs of a rooftop photovoltaic we use the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE). To determine the average rooftop photovoltaic energy production in 2018, a model of 3 years Automatic Weather System (AWS) history data was used. For the same calculation in the next year, it is corrected by the derating factor of the system assuming a 13 percent decrease from the previous energy production each year. For the scenario of a battery-free rooftop photovoltaic system, the grid parity condition in Surabaya is expected to be achieved as early as 2021 for a capacity of 3,500 Wp and 5,500 Wp, while in Jakarta with the same capacity it will only be reached by 2022. For the scenario of a rooftop photovoltaic system with battery storage, the grid parity condition in Surabaya is expected to be achieved as early as 2024 for a capacity of 3,500 Wp, 4.400 Wp and 5,500 Wp, while in Jakarta with the same capacity it will only be reached by 2025. The Grid Parity in Surabaya is faster than in Jakarta because LCOE projections for Surabaya is cheaper than LCOE in Jakarta due to the average energy production in one year for the Surabaya region is higher than in Jakarta.