Grid parity analysis of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China

Abstract

Abstract In the context of the tight deadline to achieve grid parity in China before 2020, this paper analyzes the demand-side (residential, and industrial and commercial) and supply-side grid parity of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) power generation in province-level in detail. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of four resource areas in 2018, 2020 and 2025 is calculated (2020 and 2025, respectively-area I: 0.4197, >0.3628, unit: CNY/kWh). Through comparing the LCOE with retail electricity prices and desulfurization thermal power benchmark prices, we find that in 2018 only six provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China have failed to meet their 2020 target ahead of schedule. Jiangxi and Shanghai are struggling to achieve residential grid parity, based on projections for 2020. According to projections for 2025, DPV would be able to compete strongly with thermal power generation in all but seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). A sensitivity analysis of the parameters affecting LCOE is also performed. Finally, we propose a path towards achieving grid parity and make recommendations for the government and the PV industry.