Grey Predictors for Hourly Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

Abstract

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on an external irregular source, the incident wind speed, which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operators. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. This chapter investigates the usage of Grey predictor rolling models for hourly wind speed forecasting and wind power prediction.