Grey Prediction Analysis on the Scale of Cross-Border E-Commerce Retail Import Transaction in Hainan

Chen Nana,He Zhixia,S Islam,W Liu

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202129203007

Abstract

Combined with the policy of Hainan free trade port, the advantages of cross-border e-commerce enable the retail import cross-border e-commerce of Hainan free trade port develop rapidly, but Hainan cross-border e-commerce started late, and the data is very limited, so there is almost no reference econometric model. Therefore, this paper used the grey prediction GM (1,1) model to make a short-term prediction analysis of Hainan cross-border e-commerce retail import transaction scale, and used the residual correction model to improve the prediction accuracy, hoping to provide data reference and relevant policy basis for subsequent researchers and managers by analyzing the results in many aspects.

Highlights

Cross border electricity supplier is a new mode of “Internet plus Trade”
As a new form of business, cross-border e-commerce is in line with the direction and characteristics of Hainan free trade port, and it is an important part of the free trade port policy and system
Zhang Yilan makes an empirical analysis on the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China with one-dimensional variable and twodimensional variable grey prediction models, and finds that the two-dimensional variable grey prediction model has higher accuracy, and the results show that the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China will continue to grow in the few years

Summary

Introduction

Compared with traditional export trade, cross-border electric business B-B, B-C and other new modes enable enterprises to directly face overseas retailers and consumers, reduce trade operation costs and less capital, and promote the growth of foreign trade, facilitate the facilitation and liberalization of foreign trade, etc., and avoid the traditional trade in foreign countries for long periods. As a new form of business, cross-border e-commerce is in line with the direction and characteristics of Hainan free trade port, and it is an important part of the free trade port policy and system. It is urgent to find a quantitative model of cross-border e-commerce suitable for the actual situation of Hainan, study crossborder e-commerce more objectively, provide strong evidence for the economic transformation and upgrading of Hainan Province, and promote the economic development of Hainan Province

Grey Prediction Model

Findings

Conclusion