Grey Multivariable Prediction Model of Energy Consumption with Different Fractional Orders

Abstract

The scientific prediction of energy consumption plays an essential role in grasping trends in energy consumption and optimizing energy structures. Energy consumption will be affected by many factors. In this paper, in order to improve the accuracy of the prediction model, the grey correlation analysis method is used to analyze the relevant factors. First, the factor with the largest correlation degree is selected, and then a new grey multivariable convolution prediction model with dual orders is established. Different fractional orders are used to accumulate the target data sequence and the influencing-factor data sequence, and the model is optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. The model is used to fit and test the energy consumption of Shanghai, Guizhou and Shandong provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 compared with other multivariable grey prediction models. Experimental results with the MAPE and RMSPE measurements show that our improved model is reasonable and effective in energy consumption prediction. At the same time, the model is applied to forecast the energy consumption of the three regions from 2021 to 2025, providing reliable information for future energy distribution.