Grey Multiattribute Emergency Decision-Making Method for Public Health Emergencies Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Abstract

In view of the different risk preferences of decision-makers and the information gap in the timing of the subjects under evaluation, a multiattribute dynamic decision-making model that considers decision risk in addition to the priority of time is proposed. First, to account for the uncertainty of the evaluation information, the interval grey number method was applied to perform numerical abstraction and key data feature extraction on the scene of public health emergencies and to obtain the information after attributes were unified. Second, acknowledging the bounded rational behavior of actual decision-makers, the decision-makers’ risk preference was introduced into emergency decision-making. In combination with the time degree, the multiattribute unified decision matrix was transformed into an expected dynamic cumulative prospect decision matrix. Furthermore, based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT), the prospect value function and the weight function are constructed; a new optimization model is proposed to obtain the attribute weight. And according to the comprehensive prospect value of each alternative, the priority of the alternatives was determined. Finally, with the COVID-19 epidemic serving as an example, the results confirm that the emergency decision-making method proposed in this paper is feasible and effective.