Grey model for prediction of pore pressure change

Abstract

Prediction of pore pressure change is an effective tool to properly monitor changes of groundwater flow caused by any construction work in fractured rock mass. Due to the complexity of hydrogeologic conditions in fractured rock and the scale of interest of the study domain, prediction of pore pressure changes by numerical models has not been precise enough to meet monitoring requirements. Considering these problems, a Grey model that combines the finite element method (FEM) and the artificial neural network (ANN) was developed for more precise prediction of pore pressure changes. In this model, several patterns of pore pressure changes were calculated by FEM for a simplified hydrogeologic conceptual model at a scale smaller than a representative elementary volume. The ANN model was then constructed to predict the actual pore pressure change using these FEM results as inputs. This modeling approach was adopted to predict the pore pressure changes caused by the construction of shafts of Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU), Japan. From the results obtained for MIU, it can be concluded that the proposed Grey model is a powerful tool for monitoring of pore pressure changes.