Grey degree and grey prediction of groundwater head

Abstract

Boundary types and geologic conditions, which possess random and obscure characteristics, produce variations in groundwater heads. In this study, a groundwater flow system was regarded as a grey system and a grey degree defined and quantified those characteristics. Data were obtained from field records in Gao-Shu and De-Xie Stations, which are located in the upper and middle sites of Pingtung Plain, Taiwan, respectively. An estimated interval was used to represent the upper and lower groundwater head limits. The analyses showed that the grey degree in the wet season was smaller than in the dry season. This was due to the greater uncertainty in groundwater pumping and rainfall recharge in the dry season. With high confidence levels, the grey degree of the groundwater heads decreased. Under spatial distribution, the uncertainty of the groundwater pumping and rainfall recharge in the middle zone was greater than in the upper zone because the middle zone included residential districts and agricultural regions. Thus, the grey degree in the upper zone was less than the middle zone. The grey model can be used to predict a groundwater head based on the observed groundwater head data and the random degree in the groundwater head each month can be judged by the grey interval.