Grey-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach: Addressing uncertainty at complex decision problems

Abstract

In complex systems, decision makers encounter uncertainty from various sources. In this paper, a new hybrid grey-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach is proposed to optimize the evaluation space in decision problems that are subject to subjective and objective uncertainty over different types of interrelated criteria. The four-phase methodology begins with the formulation of a decision problem through the analysis of the system of concern, its functionality, and substantial connections among evaluation criteria. The second phase involves the development of grey linguistic scales to handle the uncertainty of human judgements. The third phase integrates the grey linguistic scale, concepts of grey systems theory, and principles of Analytical Network Process to prioritize criteria. Finally, to evaluate and rank alternatives in such a complex setting, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation II is extended using a grey linguistic scale to articulate subjective uncertainty, grey numbers to account for objective uncertainty, grey operating rules to normalize evaluation measures, and the proposed approach of prioritizing evaluation criteria to establish relative preferences. To demonstrate the viability of the methodology, a case study is presented, in which a strategic decision is made within the context of innovation. To validate the methodology, a comparative analysis is provided.