Abstract
Background: Gentrification is a neighborhood change process characterized by sociodemographic shifts and increasing property values in previously low-income neighborhoods. This process might impact distributions of environmental assets, including greenspace.Objective: To estimate the relationship between gentrification and greenspace in the 43 largest metropolitan areas of the United States.Methods: We used U.S. census data to identify census tracts that gentrified between years 1990 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010, and data from the national landcover database to calculate % greenspace within each census tract in 1992, 2001, and 2011. We used random slope, random intercept models, adjusting for population density and change in population density, to estimate whether: (a) % greenspace in 1992 predicted gentrification from 1990 to 2000; (b) % greenspace in 2001 predicted gentrification from 2000 to 2010; and (c) gentrification from 2000 to 2010 predicted changes in % greenspace from 2001 to 2011. We compared census tracts that gentrified to those that did not, and excluded those that were too wealthy to gentrify at baseline.Results: From 1990 to 2000, and from 2000 to 2010, 7,834 and 9,522 census tracts in our dataset experienced gentrification, respectively. From 2000 to 2010, on average, % greenspace cover decreased by -0.02 units (range: -0.98, 0.14). In unadjusted models, higher greenspace percentages in 1992 were associated with higher odds of gentrification from 1990 to 2000 [OR = 2.05 (95% CI: 1.56 - 2.66)]. This effect was attenuated after adjusting for population density [OR = 1.25 (95% CI: 0.94 - 1.67)]. Gentrification from 2000 to 2010 was associated with a 0.13-unit decrease in greenspace cover from 2001 - 2011, after adjustment for changes in population density (95% CI: 0.94 - 1.67).Discussion: Greener areas may be more prone to gentrification. However, development processes related to gentrification may reduce greenspace cover over time.
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