Greenhouse warming versus aerosol cooling in the context of global climate change

Abstract

Since it is doubtless true that the global greenhouse warming may be compensated for by aerosol cooling to a considerable extent, it is important to analyze the reliability of relevant estimates because the assumption of pure scattering aerosols is far from reality. The results of complex CAENEX and GAAREX field programmes conducted in Russia have been considered in this context to demonstrate the significance of aerosol absorption. Also in this context, the case of Arctic haze deserves special attention. Another important aspect is the necessity to take into account the indirect aerosol impact on climate via changes in cloud optical properties. Climate change is a product of interaction between internally generated and externally induced variations. Hence - difficulties involved in early detection of anthropogenic climate signals. A potential methodology for solving such problems has been discussed. Since global climate modelling is still at an early stage of its development, the decisive role belongs to climate observations. Optimization of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) with regard to combined use of conventional and satellite observations to solve climate dynamics problems in the context of global change is a must of current climate studies. Various aspects of this optimization have been considered.