Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios in the solid waste sector for compliance with the Brazilian NDC: Case study of the Recife metropolitan area, Brazil.

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that the waste sector is a potential emitter of methane gas (CH4), which has a greenhouse effect up to 28 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2). The management of municipal solid waste (MSW) generates greenhouse gases (GHG) directly through emissions from the process itself as well as indirectly through transportation and energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the GHG emissions contributed by the waste sector in the Recife metropolitan region (RMR) and to define mitigation scenarios to comply with the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a result of the Paris Agreement. To achieve this, an exploratory study was carried out, including a literature review, collection of data, estimation of emissions using the IPCC model (2006), and comparison between the values assumed by the country in 2015 and those estimated in the adopted mitigation scenarios. The RMR is composed of 15 municipalities, has an area of 3,216,262 km2 and a population of 4,054,866 inhabitants (2018), generating approximality 1.4 million t-year of MSW. It was estimated that, in the period from 2006 to 2018, 25.4 million tCO2e were emitted. The comparative analysis between the absolute values defined in the Brazilian NDC and the results from the mitigation scenarios showed that approximately 36 million tCO2e could be avoided through the disposal of MSW in the RMR, equivalent to a 52% reduction in emissions estimated for 2030, a percentage greater than the 47% reduction assumed in the Paris Agreement.