Greenhouse gas emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Current and future carbon emissions from land-use change and energy consumption were analyzed for Sub-Saharan Africa. The energy sector analysis was based on UN energy data tapes while the land-use analysis was based on a spatially-explicit land-use model developed specifically for this project. The impacts of different energy and land-use strategies on future carbon emissions were considered. (A review of anthropogenic emissions of methane, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons in Sub-Saharan Africa indicated that they were probably minor in both a global and a regional context. The study therefore was focused on emissions of carbon dioxide.) The land-use model predicts carbon emissions from land use change and the amount of carbon stored in vegetation (carbon inventory) on a yearly basis between 1985 and 2001. Emissions and inventory are modeled at 9000 regularly-spaced point locations in Sub-Saharan Africa using location-specific information on vegetation type, soils, climate and deforestation. Vegetation, soils, and climate information were derived from continental-scale maps while relative deforestation rates(% of forest land lost each year) were developed from country-specific forest and deforestation statistics (FAO Tropical Forest Resources Assessment for Africa, 1980). The carbon emissions under different land use strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa were analyzed by modifying deforestation rates and altering the amount of carbon stored under different land uses. The considered strategies were: preservation of existing forests, implementation of agroforestry, and establishment of industrial tree plantations. 82 refs., 16 figs., 25 tabs.