Greenhouse gas emissions and the role of the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

Our study empirically investigates the effects of the Kyoto Protocol’s quantified emission limitation or reduction commitments on various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as CO2, CH4, N2O and other greenhouse gases, consisting of HFCs, PFCs and SF6. These GHG emissions are considered to be the main source of global warming issues and 39 countries approved to meet the commitments by ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Our empirical analysis is based on the STIRPAT model, the stochastic version of the IPAT model, using the data of 119 countries in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. Our main findings are that the effects of the commitments to the Kyoto Protocol (1) are significantly negative for the cases of CO2 and CH4 emissions, (2) are not significant for the case of N 2O emissions and (3) are significantly positive for the case of other greenhouse gas emissions. These results have important policy implications for global warming issues.