Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets

Takeshi Kuramochi,Leonardo Nascimento,Mia Moisio,Michel Den Elzen,Nicklas Forsell,Heleen Van Soest,Paola Tanguy,Sofia Gonzales,Frederic Hans,M Louise Jeffery,Hanna Fekete,Tessa Schiefer,Maria Jose De Villafranca Casas,Gustavo De Vivero-Serrano,Ioannis Dafnomilis,Mark Roelfsema,Niklas Höhne

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.015

Abstract

This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies.On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030.The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals.

Highlights

Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to holding warming increase to well below 2 ◦C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ◦C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century (UNFCCC, 2015)
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) DRC’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) document estimated that around 80 % or 200 MtCO2e of the nation’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are from the LULUCF sector in 2010, which is consistent with FAOSTAT (2019) used in this study
There is a high level of uncertainty related to land use emissions for DRC given that historical estimates vary from 200 to 600 MtCO2e/year

Summary

Introduction

Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to holding warming increase to well below 2 ◦C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ◦C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century (UNFCCC, 2015). To achieve this goal, global emissions must peak as soon as possible and reach net zero within the 21st century. Countries agreed to improve their commitments over time and to update every five years their post-2020 targets, which turned from INDCs to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) following the ratification of the Paris Agreement. Assessment of countries’ progress towards their NDCs or INDCs (here inafter NDCs, unless mentioned for countries that have not ratified the Paris Agreement) is an essential part of the ratchet mechanism; countries on track to meet or overachieve their current NDCs are well positioned to raise their NDC ambition and countries that are not on track and show

Objectives

Results

Discussion

Conclusion