Greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions and options for reducing from the Kosovo transportation sector‐dynamic modelling

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this investigation is the dynamic modelling of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution emissions, to identify technology and policy options for reducing GHG and air pollution, and to explain how these options might affect the different variables of mobile source emission systems in Kosovo.Design/methodology/approachFor modelling impacts of the technology and policy options for reducing GHG and air pollution, the model STELLA software has been used. The annual total emission for air pollutants (CO, NOx, CHx, SO2 and dust) and GHG (CO2) from the year 2000 up to 2025 is calculated. 2000 is taken as the base year for emission. Initial data value for vehicle population is taken from MEM and from World Bank ESTAP Project for Kosovo. Projection for the total number of vehicles in Kosovo is calculated with the WB Atlas Method, while the projection for emission factors and total annual emission for Air Pollutants and GHG (CO2) are calculated with US EPA methodology.FindingsFrom the results obtained using this model, the variables that drive GHG and air pollutant emissions and reduction in transport are identified. This model, predicts high emission of air pollutions and GHG in the short term from 2000 to 2010. After 2015, due to implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in transportation, a continual reduction in air pollution will take place, whereas the CO2 output up to 2025 will be reduced by 25 percent in comparison with the emission values of 2007.Originality/valueModels presented here are the first, together with original data and results, with the predictions which are regional, but accepted globally. This work is original, since no such analysis has been carried out about mobile source emission systems in Kosovo. The paper provides data and results on which further research could be carried out.