Green-Blue Spaces and Population Density versus COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Poland.

Abstract

In the last year, in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, scientific papers have appeared in which the authors are trying to identify factors (including environmental) favoring the spread of this disease. This paper presents the spatial differentiation in the total number of COVID-19 cases and deaths during the full year (March 2020–March 2021) of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Poland versus green-blue spaces (green—i.a. forests, orchards, meadows and pastures, recreational and rest areas, biologically active arable land; blue—lakes and artificial water reservoirs, rivers, ecological areas and internal waters) and population density. The analysis covers 380 counties, including 66 cities. This study used daily reports on the progress of the pandemic in Poland published by the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Poland and unique, detailed data on 24 types of land use available in the Statistics Poland database. Statistical relationships were determined between the above-mentioned environmental variables and the variables characterizing COVID-19 (cases and deaths). Various basic types of regression models were analysed. The optimal model was selected, and the determination coefficient, significance level and the values of the parameters of these relationships, together with the estimation error, were calculated. The obtained results indicated that the higher the number of green-blue spaces in individual counties, the lower the total number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. These relationships were described by logarithmic and homographic models. In turn, an increase in the population density caused an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths, according to the power model. These results can be used in the current analysis of the spread of the pandemic, including the location of potential outbreaks. In turn, the developed models can be used as a tool in forecasting the development of the pandemic and making decisions about the implementation of preventive measures.