Green recovery or pollution rebound? Evidence from air pollution of China in the post-COVID-19 era

Abstract

Under the strict control measures, China has achieved phased victory in combating with the COVID-19, production activities have gradually returned to normal. This paper examined whether air pollution was rebounded or realized green recovery in the post-COVID-19 era with a dataset of weather normalized pollutant concentrations using difference-in-differences models. Results showed that air pollution experienced a significant decline due to the wide range of control measures. With entering the post-epidemic period, air pollution raised due to the orderly production resumption. Specifically, production resumption increased the PM2.5 concentrations of lockdown cities and non-lockdown cities by 43.2% (22.3 μg/m3) and 35.9% (17.3 μg/m3) compared with that in the period of COVID-19 breakout. Although the economic activities of China have been gradually recovered, PM2.5 concentrations were 8.8–11.2 μg/m3 lower than the level of pre-epidemic period. In addition, the environmental effects varied across cities. With the process of production resumption, the PM2.5 concentrations of cities with higher GDP, higher secondary industry output, more private cars and higher export volume rebounded less. Most developed cities realized green recovery by economy growth and air quality improvement, such as Beijing and Shanghai. While cities with heavy industry reflected pollution rebound with slow economy recovery, such as Shenyang and Harbin. Understanding the environmental effects of control measure and production resumption can provide crucial information for developing epidemic recovery policies and dealing with pollution issues for both China and other countries.